Will this trial be stopped early?

Look up any Phase 1–3 drug trial on ClinicalTrials.gov that started in 2008 or later. You'll see its termination-risk score, how it ranks against the trials running now, and what moved the score.

Or try one of these

Running now, rated high risk
LEVosimendan to Improve Exercise Limitation in Patients With PH-HFpEF NCT05983250 · Phase 3 · Tenax Therapeutics, Inc. riskier than 96% of active trials · active not recruiting ARX788 in HER2-positive, Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects (ACE-Breast-03) NCT04829604 · Phase 2 · Ambrx, Inc. among the riskiest 1% of active trials · active not recruiting
Running now, rated low risk
Phase Ⅲ Clinical Trial of an Inactivated Hepatitis A Vaccine NCT07793227 · Phase 3 · Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd among the lowest-risk 1% of active trials · recruiting PK and Safety Comparison of DWJ1511 and DWC202501 in Healthy Volunteers NCT07144176 · Phase 1 · Daewoong Pharmaceutical Co. LTD. among the lowest-risk 1% of active trials · recruiting
Finished: flagged, and it was terminated
Phase 2 Study of BIIB092 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT03352557 · Phase 2 · Biogen among the riskiest 1% of active trials · terminated Enoblituzumab Plus Retifanlimab or Tebotelimab in Head and Neck Cancer NCT04634825 · Phase 2 · MacroGenics among the riskiest 1% of active trials · terminated
Finished: rated low, and it completed
Bioequivalence of Imeglimin Tablet Formulations NCT03646331 · Phase 1 · Poxel SA among the lowest-risk 1% of active trials · completed
Finished: a miss, rated low but terminated
A Study of LY2409021 Formulations in Healthy Participants NCT02385084 · Phase 1 · Eli Lilly and Company riskier than 1% of active trials · terminated

How good is it?

0.710ROC AUC on 10,242 trials it never saw (95% CI 0.696–0.722)
2.1×termination rate in the top-scored 10% (32% vs 15%)
0.788AUC for termination due to slow enrollment

Checked against leakage: scored with registry records as they stood at each trial's start (from 25 archived snapshots), the AUC changes by +0.001 (95% CI -0.001 to +0.003) on 18,568 trials. Fields found edited after start are left out of the model.

When, not just whether: a competing-risks survival model ranks which trials terminate within 2 years at time-AUC 0.649 (95% CI 0.629–0.672), ahead of the yes/no model (0.613), with still-running trials handled as censored. Termination risk is rising: 5.1% of trials started in 2013–14 were terminated within 2 years, against 7.4% of those started in 2019–20.

Tested on trials that started in 2015–2016, after training on 2008–2014. The score ranks trials; read it as a percentile, not a promise. Reasons describe the model, not causes of termination.