Multiple Attacks Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of MK-0974 With Placebo for Acute Migraine (MK-0974-031)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-03-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipletreatment ofattacksacutegreater
  Phrases that lowered it: the studycomparemoderateparticipantssafety
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 275 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 424 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test the Safety and Effectiveness of MK-0974 (Telcagepant) Co-administered With Ibuprofen or Acetaminophen in Patients With Migraines With or Without Aura (MK-0974-046) NCT00758836 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Telcagepant for Prevention of Menstrually Related Migraine in Female Participants With Episodic Migraine (MK-0974-065) NCT01125774 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Telcagepant (MK-0974) Treatment of Migraine in Participants With Stable Vascular Disease (MK-0974-034) NCT00662818 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• MK0974 (Telcagepant) for Migraine Prophylaxis in Patients With Episodic Migraine (0974-049) NCT00797667 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• MK3207 for Treatment of Acute Migraines (3207-005) NCT00712725 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.