A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Combination With Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-01-31, after 2008-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapycellsquamoustumor
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofopen labeland safetyefficacy andcompare -
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 176 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 117 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 176 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6145 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2428 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, erlotinib, platinum
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) or Placebo in Combination With Platinum-Based Therapy as First Line Treatment in Patients With Advanced or Recurrent Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00883779 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study of First Line Treatment With Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Combination With Gemcitabine in Patients With Unresectable Advanced and/or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00701558 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Combination With Carboplatin-Based Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced or Recurrent Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT00700180 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) and Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Liver Cancer. NCT00605722 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Effect of R1507 in Combination With Tarceva (Erlotinib) on Progression-Free Survival in Patients With Stage IIIb/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Having Received Tarceva Monotherapy. NCT00773383 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.