Lapatinib and Trastuzumab With or Without Endocrine Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancertumorpatients musther2therapy
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalcompareseveremainadvanced
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 60% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab With or Without Lapatinib in Treating Patients With Stage II or Stage III Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT00770809 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib Ditosylate, Trastuzumab, Paclitaxel, and Surgery in Treating Patients With Breast Cancer NCT01688609 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• ErbB2 Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01658358 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Paclitaxel With Trastuzumab and Lapatinib in HER2-Positive Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT01827163 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Lapatinib or Trastuzumab in Treating Women With HER2/Neu-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00667251 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.