Methotrexate-Inadequate Response Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 37.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsmultipledoseswww bmsstudyconnectplease visit
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofto compare
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Methotrexate-Inadequate Response Autoinjector Device Sub Study NCT01844895 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Effects of Abatacept in Patients With Early Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02504268 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Abatacept Versus Adalimumab Head-to-Head NCT00929864 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-494 Given With Methotrexate in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Failed Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Biologic Therapy NCT01960855 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of BMS-986142 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02638948 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.