Study of INT-747 as Monotherapy in Participants With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: biopsyulnlivereffectiveprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsm2screeningacidparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Obeticholic Acid in the Treatment of Primary Biliary Cholangitis NCT05450887 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study on Effects of Obeticholic Acid (OCA) on Lipoprotein Metabolism in Participants With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis NCT01865812 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Elafibranor in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and Inadequate Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid NCT03124108 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of Obeticholic Acid in Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis NCT01473524 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effects of Two Doses of Seladelpar (MBX-8025) in Subjects With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC) NCT02609048 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.