Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide in Japanese Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Who Are Treated With Oral Antidiabetic(s)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: treatedplacebo controlledpatientreceivingtime of
  Phrases that lowered it: with typetype diabetesand safetyjapaneseefficacy and
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 207 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 372 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Dulaglutide in Japanese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01584232 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Comparison Study of the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Exenatide Once Weekly Suspension to Sitagliptin and Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01652729 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Compared to Once-Daily Insulin in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT00935532 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Exenatide Once Weekly to Those of Sitagliptin and Pioglitazone,in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Treated With Metformin (DURATION - 2) NCT00637273 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY2189265 in Japanese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01558271 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.