Rilonacept for Treatment of Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsparentpainguardian
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinepatientsreceiveddays beforeupper
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 39 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Canakinumab in Pediatric Patients With Colchicine Intolerant or Colchicine Resistant Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) NCT01148797 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Kineret (Anakinra), in Adult Patients With Colchicine-Resistant Familial Mediterranean Fever NCT01705756 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of GSK2136525 Repeat Dose in Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01077531 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy Study Of Tofacitinib In Pediatric JIA Population NCT02592434 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Canakinumab Administered for 6 Months (24 Weeks) in Japanese Patients With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes Followed by an Extension Phase NCT00991146 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.