Phase 2b, Trial of Intravesical DTA-H19/PEI in Patients With Intermediate-Risk Superficial Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagetumorcancerto determinepatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacymoderateand safetyparticipatedsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ADSTILADRIN (=INSTILADRIN) in Patients With High-Grade, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT02773849 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Intravesical Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) in BCG Refractory High-Risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) Patients NCT03053635 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of EN3348 (Mycobacterial Cell Wall-DNA Complex [MCC]) as Compared With Mitomycin C in the Intravesical Treatment of Subjects With BCG Recurrent/Refractory Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT01200992 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Response to 2 Induction Courses (12 Intravesical Instillations) of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for High Risk Superficial Bladder Cancer NCT02281383 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study of BC-819/PEI and BCG in Patients With Superficial Transitional Cell Bladder Carcinoma NCT01878188 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.