2-arm Trial of Paclitaxel Plus Bevacizumab vs. Capecitabine Plus Bevacizumab
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-12-31, after 2008-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticpaincancercellchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: oralmghormonalaminotransferaseopen -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14083 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4693 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Addition of Carboplatin to Neoadjuvant Therapy for Triple-negative and HER2-positive Early Breast Cancer NCT01426880 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Metronomic Therapy in Metastatic Breast Cancer. NCT01131195 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Platine, Avastin and OLAparib in 1st Line NCT02477644 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- A Study of Napabucasin (BBI-608) in Combination With FOLFIRI in Adult Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02753127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- The EndoBARR Trial (Endometrial Bevacizumab, Atezolizumab, Rucaparib) NCT03694262 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.