A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of CP-690,550 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: evidencediseasedefinedpatients withreceiving
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsto investigatesafetyinvestigate theat screening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 244 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study To Investigate Safety And Efficacy Of CP-690,550 For Induction Therapy In Subjects With Moderate To Severe Crohn's Disease NCT01393626 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• The Safety And Efficacy Of Maintenance Therapy With CP-690,550 NCT01393899 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study To Investigate The Safety And Efficacy Of CP- 690,550 In Patients With Moderate And Severe Ulcerative Colitis. NCT00787202 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Study of PRV-6527 in Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT03854305 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Study To Test Whether PF-00547659 Is Safe And Improves Disease Symptoms In Patients With Crohn's Disease NCT01276509 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.