Lenalidomide in Treating Patients With Progressive or Recurrent Multiple Myeloma After a Donor Stem Cell Transplant

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerbreasttransplantstem
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomaaminotransferasevisitlaboratorypatients who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide Intensification in Patients With Serologic/Asymptomatic Progression of Multiple Myeloma While on Lenalidomide Maintenance NCT01463670 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Pomalidomide or Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Previously Treated With Lenalidomide NCT01794039 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide, Subcutaneous Bortezomib and Dexamethasone Therapy for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT02441686 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Low-Dose Azacitidine, Lenalidomide, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01155583 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide, Thalidomide and Dexamethasone in Treating Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT00966693 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.