Sunitinib as a Second-line Treatment for Patients With Recurrent Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 35% for any early termination, 29% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsmalllung cancerrecurrentqtc
  Phrases that lowered it: trialmgsurgeryefficacy andday
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 874 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Irinotecan, Carboplatin, and Sunitinib in First Line Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00695292 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Sintilimab Combined With Anlotinib as Second or Further-line Therapy for ED-SCLC NCT04055792 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study of Sorafenib Maintenance in Patients With ED-SCLC After Response to Induction Chemotherapy NCT01159327 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Paclitaxel, Carboplatin, and Dimethylxanthenone Acetic Acid in Treating Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01057342 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• AZD 2811 Monotherapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N3] NCT03366675 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.