Phase 3 Study of MAP0004 in Adult Migraineurs
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-01-31, after 2008-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasestrokechroniconsetkidney
Phrases that lowered it: paralleladultgroupbetween 18single -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 54 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 40 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of ALD403 (Eptinezumab) in the Prevention of Chronic Migraine NCT02974153 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AMG 301 in Migraine Prevention NCT03238781 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of NXN-188 for the Treatment of Migraine Headache Without Aura NCT00959751 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- MLD10 in the Prevention of Migraine in Adults NCT02322333 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of ALD403 NCT01772524 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.