REsearching Coronary REduction by Appropriately Targeting Euglycemia (RECREATE Pilot Study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: definedstagetherapymyocardialinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: insulintype diabetesdiabetes mellitusadmissionglucose
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 17549 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5158 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Lantus and Apidra in Patients With Acute ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction NCT00670228 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Metformin to Reduce Heart Failure After Myocardial Infarction NCT01217307 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes After Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With AVE0010 (Lixisenatide) NCT01147250 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Glucose Insulin Potassium With Intensive Insulin Therapy and (GIK2) Versus GIK Alone NCT00965406 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Stroke Hyperglycemia Insulin Network Effort (SHINE) Trial NCT01369069 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.