Efficacy vs Placebo as Initial Combination Therapy With Pioglitazone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: treatment withpatientspriortherapytreated
  Phrases that lowered it: abusevisitdrugparticipation inalcohol
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Empagliflozin (BI 10773) in Type 2 Diabetes Patients on a Background of Pioglitazone Alone or With Metformin NCT01210001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of B I1356 (Linagliptin) vs. Placebo Added to Metformin Background Therapy in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00601250 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Empagliflozin (BI 10773) and Sitagliptin Versus Placebo Over 76 Weeks in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01289990 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Linagliptin (5 mg Administered Orally Once Daily) Over 24 Weeks in Type 2 Diabetic Patients With Insufficient Glycaemic Control Despite Metformin Therapy NCT01215097 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of BI 1356 (Linagliptin) Versus Placebo in Type 2 Diabetic Patients With Insufficient Glycemic Control NCT00621140 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.