A Study of an Experimental Chemotherapy Combination to Treat Hormone Refractory Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-04-30, after 2008-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: refractorycancerto determinedetermine whethertherapy
Phrases that lowered it: prostatepsareceivedgroupantigen -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 292 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 292 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 157 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18790 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3083 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, prednisone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Darolutamide in Addition to ADT Versus ADT in Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer NCT04736199 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Darolutamide in Addition to Standard Androgen Deprivation Therapy and Docetaxel in Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer NCT02799602 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of QLG1080 in Patients With Hormone-sensitive Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT06837896 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Docetaxel and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT00728663 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Study of LY2181308 in Combination With Docetaxel Versus Docetaxel in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01107444 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.