A Study of ARRY-380 in Patients With Advanced HER2+ Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatictrastuzumabprior
  Phrases that lowered it: study drugsolidstandard therapyfirst dosedose of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose-escalation, Expansion Study of ARX788, in Advanced Solid Tumors Subjects With HER2 Expression (ACE-Pan Tumor 01) NCT03255070 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Dose-escalation Study of ARX788, IV Administered in Subjects With Advanced Cancers With HER2 Expression NCT02512237 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Combination of AUY922 With Trastuzumab in HER2+ Advanced Breast Cancer Patients Previously Treated With Trastuzumab NCT01271920 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Phase II of AUY922 in Second-line Gastric Cancer in Combination With Trastuzumab in HER2 Positive Patients NCT01402401 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Study of A166 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Cancers Expressing HER2 Antigen or Having Amplified HER2 Gene NCT03602079 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.