Montelukast to Treat Bronchiolitis Obliterans

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustor equalequal togreater thancells
  Phrases that lowered it: childrenversusadultstemclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 242 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 252 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Targeted Therapy of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome NCT01307462 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Ruxolitinib for Early Lung Dysfunction After Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant NCT04908735 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Cyclosporine Inhalation Solution (CIS) in Lung Transplant and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients for the Treatment of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome NCT01287078 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Proposal to Test the Efficacy and Tolerability of Bortezomib in Pulmonary Chronic GVHD NCT01163786 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy of Fluticasone Propionate Associated With Salmeterol Using Inhalation Chamber Versus Placebo to Improve the Respiratory Function in Children Over Six Years of Age Who Underwent Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation With a Decline of FEV1 ≥10% From Pre Transplantation NCT04655508 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.