Phase 2 Study of ALN-RSV01 in Lung Transplant Patients Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantantiviraltime ofbilateralthe time
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsmglungstandardrespiratory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2b Study of ALN-RSV01 in Lung Transplant Patients Infected With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) NCT01065935 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Presatovir in Lung Transplant (LT) Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection NCT02534350 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• RI-001 in Immunosuppressed Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infected Patients at Risk of Lower Tract RSV Illness NCT00632463 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Presatovir in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection of the Lower Respiratory Tract NCT02254421 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Presatovir in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection of the Upper Respiratory Tract NCT02254408 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.