Investigation of Efficacy and Safety of Botulinum Toxin A (Botox-Allergan Inc) in Migraine Headaches

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: botulinumtoxinpain18botox
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetysafety ofaffecthypothesis
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 85 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Using Botulinum Toxin Type A as Headache Prophylaxis in Adolescents With Chronic Migraine NCT01662492 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study of BOTOX Injections in Prevention of Migraine in Adult Participants With Episodic Migraine NCT05028569 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• Effectiveness of Onabotulinumtoxin A (Botox) in Pediatric Patients Experiencing Migraines: A Study in the Pediatric Pain Population NCT03055767 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Follow the Sutures. A New Procedure for Injection of Botulinum Toxin for Chronic Migraine NCT03543254 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of OnabotulinumtoxinA in Migraine NCT04578782 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.