Mitoxantrone ± Cetuximab 2nd Line Androgen Independent Prostate Cancer (AIPC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 38% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-06-30, after 2008-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancerevidence ofmetastaticprior
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoweeksweekconsent formhormonal -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5488 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1527 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cetuximab, mitoxantrone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Study of Docetaxel Before Degarelix in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Prostate Cancer. NCT03069937 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Cabazitaxel With or Without Carboplatin in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01505868 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Phase I Cabazitaxel, Mitoxantrone, and Prednisone Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01594918 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability Study of ISIS EIF4E Rx in Combination With Docetaxel and Prednisone (CRPC) NCT01234025 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.