18-week add-on to Metformin Comparison of Saxagliptin and Sitagliptin in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes (T2D)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: treatmentiiibnonstablediabetic
  Phrases that lowered it: metformintype diabetesefficacy andand safetythe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 227 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Saxagliptin in Combination With Metformin in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00661362 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Saxagliptin Triple Oral Therapy NCT01128153 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Saxagliptin in Combination With Metformin IR Compared to Saxagliptin Monotherapy and to Metformin IR Monotherapy in Drug Naive Chinese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Inadequate Glycaemic Control NCT02273050 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Subjects That Are Taking Saxagliptin Added Onto Metformin XR Compared to Subjects Taking Metformin XR Alone NCT00683657 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study To Evaluate 24 Hour Blood Sugar Control (24-hour Mean Weighted Glucose) In Subjects That Are Taking Saxagliptin 5 mg Added Onto Metformin XR 1500 XR mg Compared To Subjects Taking Metformin XR 1500 mg Up-titrated To Metformin XR 2000 mg NCT00918138 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.