Clinical Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Tolerability of ACT 064992 in Patients With Symptomatic Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termterm safetyextension studythe longtolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withtreatmentpatients whoclinicalopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 12 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Epoprostenol for Injection in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT01470144 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• ACT-293987 in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT01112306 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study of Macitentan in Patients With PAH to Psychometrically Validate PAH-SYMPACT Instrument NCT01847014 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Inhaled Imatinib Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Clinical Trial - Follow Up Long Term Extension (IMPAHCT-FUL) NCT05557942 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• A Study With BPS-314d-MR-PAH-303 in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT03657095 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.