A Phase 1 Study of BMS-833923 (XL139) in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagebmscarcinomaascending
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialinadequatesafety ofcontactvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Immuno-Therapy Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986242 Given in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT03351231 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Escalation and Combination Immunotherapy Study to Evaluate BMS-986226 Alone or in Combination With Nivolumab or Ipilimumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03251924 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Study of BMS-986360/CC-90001 Alone and in Combination With Chemotherapy or Nivolumab in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT05625412 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986156, Given by Itself or in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Solid Cancers or Cancers That Have Spread. NCT02598960 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986179 Given Alone and in Combination With Nivolumab NCT02754141 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.