Safety and Efficacy of Exenatide Once Weekly Injection Versus Metformin, Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitor, or Thiazolidinedione as Monotherapy in Drug-Naive Patients With Type 2 Diabetes (DURATION-4)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsituactivecardiacmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatewith typecomparetype diabetesdrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 28.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 288 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 74630 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 520 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Exenatide Once Weekly and Once-Daily Insulin Glargine in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Treated With Metformin Alone or in Combination With Sulfonylurea (DURATION - 3) NCT00641056 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Exenatide Once Weekly in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DURATION-5) NCT00877890 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety of Exenatide Once Weekly in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Treated With Thiazolidinedione Alone or Thiazolidinedione in Combination With Metformin NCT00753896 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Exenatide Once Weekly to Those of Sitagliptin and Pioglitazone,in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Treated With Metformin (DURATION - 2) NCT00637273 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Exenatide in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Using a Thiazolidinedione or a Thiazolidinedione and Metformin NCT00603239 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.