Autologous Transplantation of Bone Marrow Mononuclear Cell (BM-MNC) With and Without Granulocyte-Colony Stimulation Factor (G-CSF) for Treatment of Chronic Lower Limb Ischemic Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lymphomaevidencechronictissuepatients
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesand safetyhistoryindexinjection
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Chronic Critical Limb Ischemia With G-CSF-mobilized Autologous Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells NCT01833585 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Monocentric Trial: Stem Cell Emergency Life Threatening Limbs Arteriopathy (SCELTA) NCT02454231 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Side Effects of 4 Times Bone Marrow Mono Nuclear Transplantation in Patients With Ischemic Lower Limb NCT01480414 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Administration of Adipose-derived Stem Cells (ASC) in Patient With Critical Limb Ischemia. NCT03968198 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Critical Limb Ischemia NCT00883870 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.