An Exploratory Trial of AZD3480 (TC-1734) for the Treatment of Adult Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ivcompletedequaladhdtreatment
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatedaycognitivesmokingcigarettes
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 233 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 401 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety & Efficacy of TC-5619 in Adults With Inattentive-predominant Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) NCT01472991 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Tolerability of AZD1446 in Adult ADHD Patients. NCT01012375 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of OPC-64005 in the Treatment of Adult Attention-deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder NCT03324581 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating the Efficacy, Safety, & Tolerability of Centanafadine Sustained-release Tablets in Adults With Attention-deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder NCT03605680 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety and Efficacy of OPC-34712 as a Complementary Therapy in the Treatment of Adult Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder NCT01074294 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.