PROCHYMAL™ (Human Adult Stem Cells) for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-08-24, after 2008-03-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicheartadult humanplacebo controlledstem
Phrases that lowered it: participantmoderateparticipantskgefficacy -
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 12 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 12 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- remestemcel l
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mesenchymal Stem Cells in the Treatment of Subjects With Advance Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT04047810 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of Adipose Derive Stem Cells for Patients With COPD NCT02161744 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- COPD Treatment by Transplantation of Autologous Bronchial Basal Cells NCT05594303 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Adipose Derived Stem Cells for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02216630 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells Transplantation in the Treatment of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT04433104 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.