Vitamin D for the Prevention of Diabetes Type 2
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (48 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-09-30, after 2008-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: type diabetesstageof typesubjects withinsulin
Phrases that lowered it: impairedvitaminhealthweekthe present -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 19190 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19190 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3930 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol, vitamin d
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vitamin D AND Glucose Handling Evaluated by Glucose Clamp NCT00809744 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D for Established Type 2 Diabetes (DDM2) NCT01736865 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Metabolic Effects of Vitamin D in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00812578 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Does Vitamin D Reduce Risk of Developing Type II DM in High Risk Individuals NCT01170468 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Effects of Treating Vitamin D Deficiency in Poorly Controlled Type 2 Diabetes NCT01855321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.