Phenethyl Isothiocyanate in Preventing Lung Cancer in Smokers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronarysubjectsarterybloodwilling
  Phrases that lowered it: dexamethasonemultipleuln20liver
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial of Lung Cancer Chemoprevention With Sulforaphane in Former Smokers NCT03232138 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Broccoli Sprout Extracts Trial to See if NRF2 is Enhanced by Sulforaphane Treatment in Patients With COPD NCT01335971 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Randomized Trial to Evaluate the Effectiveness of X-22 as a Smoking Cessation Aid NCT01400815 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• The Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic Study of HEC585 in Healthy Male and Female Subjects NCT03092102 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• To Assess the Bioequivalence of the 4mg Prototype Mini Nicotine Lozenge to the Reference Product (Nicorette) in Healthy Smokers NCT03543137 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.