Impact of Multiple Doses of BAY63-2521 on Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics in Patients With Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) Associated Pulmonary Hypertension (PH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungdlfunctionarterialii
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsrelevantmedicationclinicallyinvestigate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 94 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 215 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 3 Part Study to Assess Inhaled Nitric Oxide on Functional Pulmonary Imaging in Subj. Pulmonary Hypertension Associated w/ COPD and IPF NCT02267655 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Riociguat in Patients With Symptomatic Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) Associated With Idiopathic Interstitial Pneumonias (IIP) NCT02138825 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of the Pharmacodynamic Effect of the Combination of Sildenafil and Riociguat on Blood Pressure and Other Safety Parameters. NCT01179334 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Frespaciguat (MK-5475) in Participants With Pulmonary Hypertension Associated With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (PH-COPD) (MK-5475-006) NCT04370873 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib in Patients With Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease (PF-ILD) NCT02999178 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.