Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD1981 in Japan
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2008-10-31, after 2008-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitysubjectstolerability pharmacokineticsmultipleand pharmacodynamics
Phrases that lowered it: healthyjapaneserelevantsinglemale -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 267 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 448 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 448 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 267 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AZD8529 Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT00886756 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability & PK of AZD0328 in Caucasian & Japanese NCT00738959 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- AZD7268 Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT00912353 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Dose of AZD2516 to Japanese Healthy Subjects NCT00972049 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and PK Following Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD7295 in Japanese NCT00818129 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.