A Pilot Trial of Lithium in Subjects With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy or Corticobasal Degeneration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mgstableminevidenceprogressive
  Phrases that lowered it: resistantdiseasestrialresponse tonsaids
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of TPI-287 to Treat CBS and PSP NCT02133846 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Safety and Tolerability of UCB0107 in Study Participants With Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP) NCT04185415 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Davunetide for the Treatment of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT01110720 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Ascending Doses of NIO752 in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy NCT04539041 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Low-Dose Lithium for the Treatment of Behavioral Symptoms in Frontotemporal Dementia NCT02862210 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.