Bicarbonate and Lipocalin in Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-09-30, after 2010-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientfailureserumcellspatients
Phrases that lowered it: safety20respiratoryefficacyblood -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 23269 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5818 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bicarbonate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Furosemide in Early Acute Kidney Injury NCT00978354 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- Sodium Bicarbonate to Prevent Acute Kidney Injury in Children Undergoing Cardiac Surgery NCT02046135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Sodium Bicarbonate Supplementation in Chronic Kidney Disease Evaluation of Dose Response, Safety and Beneficial Effects NCT00888290 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Bicarbonates Versus Saline for Contrast Induced Acute Kidney Injury Prevention in Intensive Care Unit NCT01636089 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Furosemide and Albumin for Diuresis of Edema: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial NCT02055872 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.