Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of a Vaccine Against Essential Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ischemiciiventricularstrokerisk
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinemoderatemmhgblood pressuresitting
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 69 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability, Pharmacodynamic Effects and Exploratory Efficacy of a Vaccine Against Essential Hypertension NCT00701649 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Angiotensin Therapeutic Vaccine in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Hypertension NCT00702221 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Monthly Subcutaneous Administration of ION904 in Participants With Uncontrolled Hypertension NCT05314439 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of IONIS-AGT-LRx, an Antisense Inhibitor Administered Subcutaneously to Hypertensive Participants With Controlled Blood Pressure NCT03714776 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study With ACT-132577 (Aprocitentan) in Participants With Essential Hypertension NCT02603809 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.