Computer-Assisted Self-Administration of Ethanol
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-11, after 2008-10-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: eligiblesubjectscnsantinon
Phrases that lowered it: participantsalcoholparticipantbloodhealthy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 24 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Varenicline to Reduce Alcohol Consumption in Heavy Drinkers NCT00695500 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Title: Effect of Opioid Receptor Modulation on Alcohol Self-Administration and Neural Response to Alcohol Cues in Heavy Drinkers: Role of OPRM1 Gene Variation NCT02639273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Genetics of the Acute Response to Alcohol in Social Drinkers NCT01375556 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
- Ghrelin for Alcohol Use in Non-Treatment-Seeking Heavy Drinkers NCT01779024 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Novel Human Lab Model for Screening AUD Medications NCT04249882 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.