Phase II Combination Stem Cell Therapy for the Treatment of Severe Leg Ischemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpainpatientcellsbone
  Phrases that lowered it: compareefficacybloodsafetysevere
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of Adult Stem Cells to Treat Patients With Severe Leg Artery Disease NCT00913900 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Monocentric Trial: Stem Cell Emergency Life Threatening Limbs Arteriopathy (SCELTA) NCT02454231 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Bone Marrow Derived Stem Cells in Patients With Critical Limb Ischemia NCT01867190 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial I/II Opened, Randomized and Controlled for the Study of the Use of Stem Cells Therapy in Insulinized Diabetic Patients Type 2 With Critical Ischemia in Lower Limbs (CLI): Study of the Needs of Insulin NCT02287974 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• Tolerability and Efficacy of Intravenous Infusion of Autologous MSC_Apceth for the Treatment of Critical Limb Ischemia NCT01351610 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.