A Phase II Dose-escalation Study to Assess the Feasibility and Safety of Transendocardial Delivery of Three Different Doses of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Precursor Cells (MPCs)in Subjects With Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltherapyheart failureof studyleft
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningstudy tosubjectevaluate theto evaluate
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Effect of Intravenous Dose of (aMBMC) to Subjects With Non-ischemic Heart Failure NCT02467387 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Combination of Mesenchymal and C-kit+ Cardiac Stem Cells as Regenerative Therapy for Heart Failure NCT02501811 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• The TRansendocardial Stem Cell Injection Delivery Effects on Neomyogenesis STudy (The TRIDENT Study) NCT02013674 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Stem Cell Injection in Cancer Survivors NCT02509156 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Allogeneic Heart Stem Cells to Achieve Myocardial Regeneration NCT01458405 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.