A Phase I Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Topical CRx-197 Formulations in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellulncarcinomaheartcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteerssinglepsoriasisinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9232 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of 21 Days Dermal Application of MRX-6 on Mild to Moderate Contact Dermatitis NCT00867607 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• PDE4 Inhibition in Seborrheic Dermatitis and Papulopustular Rosacea NCT06013371 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic of Single and 14 Day Repeat Topical Application of GSK1940029 NCT01938482 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study of RVT-501 in Adult and Adolescent Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT02950922 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial of BMX-010 in Adult Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT05491447 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.