Combined Effects of Non-statin Treatments on Apolipoprotein A-I Up-Regulation (CENTAUR): A Feasibility Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnheartpatientstherapydl
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningstatinmoderatesubjectsvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Extended Release (ER) Niacin/Laropiprant When Added to Ongoing Lipid-Modifying Therapy in Patients With High Cholesterol or Abnormal Lipid Levels (MK-0524A-133) NCT01274559 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study to Evaluate the Lipid Effects of TRIA-662 NCT02008084 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Extended-Release Niacin/ Laropiprant/Simvastatin Tablets in Participants With Hypercholesterolemia or Mixed Dyslipidemia (MK-0524B-143) NCT01335997 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Administering Multiple Oral Doses of GSK1292263 Alone and With Atorvastatin NCT01218204 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Ezetimibe/Atorvastatin 10 mg/20 mg Combination Tablet Compared to Marketed Ezetimibe 10 mg and Atorvastatin 20 mg Tablets in Participants With High Cholesterol (MK-0653C-185 AM1) NCT01370590 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.