A Pilot Study to Investigate Administration of Mannitol Via a Novel Dry Powder Inhaler Device

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (45 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withdosesuncontrolledtolerability18 years
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyasthmasingletolerability ofstudy to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High Dose Inhaled Mannitol Study NCT01076491 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Twelve Month Long Term Safety Study to Evaluate the Safety of Albuterol in a Dry Powder Inhaler With Both Repeated and as Needed Dosing NCT01218009 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
• A Cumulative Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Albuterol in a Dry Powder Inhaler and an HFA MDI (Hydrofluoroalkane Metered Dose Inhaler) NCT01056159 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic Evaluation and Tolerability of Dry Powder Tobramycin by a Novel Device in Patients With Non Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT02035488 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Crossover Trial Determining the Efficacy of Dry Powder Mannitol to Improve Lung Function in Subjects Aged 6-17 Years NCT01883531 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.