This Was an Open-label, Single-arm Extension Study (CFTY720D2306E1) to a Double-blind, Randomized Multicenter, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-group Core Study (CFTY720D2306) in PPMS.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-06-22, after 2008-07-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebosclerosischronicmultiplems
Phrases that lowered it: patientsreceivedand safetyopen labelefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 25 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 123 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 159 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fingolimod
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
- Natalizumab (BG00002, Tysabri) Study in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01440101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Ofatumumab Dose-finding in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Patients NCT00640328 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study to Asses Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Monthly Long-acting IM Injection of GA Depot in Subjects With RMS NCT04121221 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.