Safety and Tolerability of Single and Multiple Doses of ISIS 353512 in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipletolerability pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamicspriorpharmacodynamics of
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatevolunteershealthyvaccine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 16 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Safety and Tolerability of STSA-1002 Following Intravenous Infusion in Healthy Subjects NCT05032144 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of ISIS 702843 Administered Subcutaneously to Healthy Volunteers NCT03165864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Single and Multiple Doses of ION547 NCT04934891 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study of STSA-1002 in Healthy Subjects NCT05497635 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics in Healthy Adult Subjects After Subcutaneous Injection of TISA-818-Inj NCT07337044 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.