A Study of Gliadel Followed by Avastin + Irinotecan for Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-10-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellchemotherapyheartcancerto determine
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyopenweekspatientsweek -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 111 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 111 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 104 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12945 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3855 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, carmustine, irinotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Avastin/Temozolomide/Irinotecan for Unresectable/Multifocal Glioblastoma Multiforme NCT00979017 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Gliadel, XRT, Temodar, Avastin Followed by Avastin, Temodar for Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) NCT01186406 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
- Avastin/Radiation (XRT)/Temozolomide (Temodar) Followed by Avastin/Temodar/Topotecan for Glioblastoma NCT01004874 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- AMG 102 and Avastin for Recurrent Malignant Glioma NCT01113398 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Phase II Avastin + Bortezomib for Patients With Recurrent Malignant Glioma NCT00611325 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.