Phase II Study of Florbetaben (BAY 94-9172) PET Imaging for Detection/Exclusion of Cerebral β-amyloid in Patients With Probable Alzheimer's Disease Compared to Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainmriimagingscanpet
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteershas historyvisitscreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single-Ascending-Dose Study of BIIB076 in Healthy Volunteers and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03056729 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• [18F]MK-6240 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Tracer First-in-Human Validation Study (MK-6240-001) NCT02562989 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Phase I [18F]THK-5351 Positron Emission Tomography Study in Healthy Subjects and Alzheimer's Disease NCT03112096 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of MNI-672 SPECT for Detection/Exclusion of Cerebral B-amyloid in AD Subjects Compared to HVs. NCT01859767 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.