Oral Posaconazole Three Times Per Day vs Weekly High Dose Amphotericin B Lipid Complex (ABLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellinvasivecancerpatientsgreater
  Phrases that lowered it: drugcomparemoderatethe studyclinical trial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 197 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 16 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of Intravenous Posaconazole Solution Followed by Oral Posaconazole Suspension in Subjects at High Risk for Invasive Fungal Infections (P05520) NCT01075984 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Posaconazole vs. Fluconazole for Prevention of Invasive Fungal Infection (P05387 AM1)(COMPLETED) NCT00811928 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Caspofungin Acetate, Fluconazole, or Voriconazole in Preventing Fungal Infections in Patients Following Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT01503515 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Posaconazole Versus Voriconazole for the Treatment of Invasive Aspergillosis (MK-5592-069) NCT01782131 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Prevention of Invasive Fungal Infections (IFIs) in Subjects Receiving Chemotherapy for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT01259713 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.