Phase 1-2 Evaluation of OT-730 Eye Drops in Reducing the Intraocular Pressure in Patients With Ocular Hypertension or Open-Angle Glaucoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: progressivemacularthe patientretinaluncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: openhealthyangleocular hypertensionglaucoma
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of OTX-TP in Subjects With OAG or OHT NCT02914509 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Multi-Arm Feasibility Study Evaluating OTX-TP Compared to Timolol in Treatment of Subjects With Open Angle Glaucoma NCT01845038 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of OTX-TP Compared to Timolol Drops in the Treatment of Subjects With Open Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02312544 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A 28 Day Study of ONO-9054 Ophthalmic Solution in Subjects With Ocular Hypertension (OHT) or Open-angle Glaucoma (OAG) NCT02083289 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Escalation Study Designed to Evaluate the Tolerability, Safety, Pharmacokinetics (PK), and Efficacy of Chronic Topical Ocular Application of INO-8875 in Adults With Ocular Hypertension or Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma NCT01123785 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.