The Pharmacokinetics of 2% TD1414 Cream in Adults With Secondarily Infected Traumatic Lesions (SITL) or Impetigo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lesiontreatment withprimarytraumaticfunction
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalthe pharmacokineticsalcoholareadays before
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of TD1414 2% Cream in Impetigo and Secondarily Infected Traumatic Lesions (SITL) NCT00626795 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Vehicle Controlled Efficacy and Safety Study of Two Dose Regimens of CD07223 1.5% Topical Gel in Impetigo NCT01670032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Bioequivalence of Mupirocin Calcium Cream, 2% and Bactroban® Cream and Compare Both to a Vehicle in Treatment of Secondarily Infected Traumatic Skin Lesions. NCT01876550 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, PK, and Activity of Topical ATx201 Gel in Outpatients With Impetigo NCT03429595 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• To Compare the Safety and Efficacy of Perrigo's Product to an FDA Approved Product for the Treatment of Secondarily Infected Traumatic Skin Lesions NCT04155203 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.