Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ABT-712 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Low Back Pain (CLBP)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painsubjects withdiagnosisinvasivein subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsadultefficacycomparedphase open
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7528 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ABT-712 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Low Back Pain (CLBP) NCT00763321 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Chronic Low Back Pain Study NCT01364922 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of Hydrocodone Bitartrate Controlled-release Capsules in Subjects With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01081912 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Hydrocodone Bitartrate Extended-Release Tablets for Moderate to Severe Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01789970 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Research Study of an Investigational Drug ALO-02 (Oxycodone Hydrochloride and Naltrexone Hydrochloride) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01571362 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.